What if the problem isn’t uncertainty — but complexity? Meet Roland Kupers, former Shell strategist, and explore why scenarios are not about predicting the future, but about navigating systems too complex to forecast.
Very few people combine hands-on experience from the inner workings of scenario planning with deep academic insight — and can still explain it in ways that make practical sense. Roland Kupers is one of them: Physicist, author and former strategist at Royal Dutch Shell and AT&T, where he worked with scenarios as a tool for strategic thinking in an unpredictable world.
Most organisations distinguish between risk and uncertainty — but often overlook the deeper challenge: Complexity. Not just many variables, but systems of interdependent dynamics that evolve, interact and resist reduction. In such environments, traditional planning breaks down, and even the best forecasts become fragile.
Shell’s scenario tradition emerged as a response to this reality as a disciplined approach to exploring multiple, interconnected futures — and to challenge assumptions across disciplines. Scenarios create a shared language for discussing what we do not know, and for making better decisions.
Over time, simplified tools such as the 2×2 matrix have become widely used. While they can be useful as an entry point, they do not reflect the full richness of the original methodology. Shell scenarios were not built on fixed axes, but on evolving narratives shaped by interacting forces — an approach that embraces complexity rather than reducing it.
In this webinar, we explore what it really means to think strategically in a complex world — where resilience, adaptability and the ability to hold multiple perspectives often matter more than optimisation.
What we will discuss
• The difference between risk, uncertainty and complexity — and why it matters
• Why efficiency often comes at the cost of resilience
• What scenarios are actually for — and what they are not
• How scenario thinking enables organisations to navigate interdependent, evolving systems
Audience: Engineers, consultants and STEM professionals working with strategy, planning and decision-making under uncertainty
Host: Rolf Ask Clausen, Danish Society of Engineers (IDA)
