Data Driven Project & Risk Decision Using Monte Carlo Simulations.. Uncertainty Analysis of Duration

Transform subjective assessments into data-driven insights and informed decision-making.

Are you relying on subjective scores and heat maps that often lead to costly overruns or project failures?

Get a modern, data-driven decision-making approach.

How to get from simple dice throw to a complicated Monte Carlo Simulation of plan or risk scenarios?

Why Attend? 

Discover how to: 

• Calculate contingencies for cost and schedule robustness 
• Allocate reserves for overall budget resilience 
• Work with ranges instead of single-point estimates 
• Use Monte Carlo simulations effectively to assess possible outcomes 
• Avoid the misrepresentation of risks caused by the "Flaw of Averages" 
• Transition from qualitative risk matrices to quantitative analyses 

Key Benefits 

• Estimate budgets, reserves, and contingencies intelligently 
• Make better decisions with realistic and actionable insights 
• Enhance your chances of success in project planning and execution 
• Embrace future uncertainty with confidence 

Who Should Attend? 

• Decision-Makers in Business, Project, Bidding, and Insurance Processes 
• Project and Program Managers, PMO Directors, CXOs 
• Project Advisors, Risk Managers, Cost Estimators, and Project Controllers 
• Anyone involved in business decision-making Anyone involved in project development and execution 

Biographies

We have the following people onboard: 

Senior PM, M.Sc., Henrik k. Søndergaard (Host for IDA Proces): Henrik have been working with project management for 28 years. Recently, within risk management and quality assuring budgets and plans within energy and construction business.  He’s giving speeches for project management organisations, DPL, EGN network etc. He uses primarily Monte Carlo simulations within overall planning. 

Managing Partner, Decision Risk Analytics, M.Sc., Morten Aagesen, With more than 30 years of experience in the energy sector, Morten has developed a passion for modelling and optimisation of complex projects and operations.  He has held various leadership roles in business management, including project ownership, business unit responsibility, and joint venture management. E.g. as Business Risk Director, Dong Energy.  In these roles, he has applied a scientific and data-driven approach to business decision analysis, integrating risks and uncertainties in a coherent and quantitative way. 

Head of Department, Risk, Safety & Project Planning, M.Sc., Ph.D, Søren Randrup-ThomsenSøren has been working with risk analysis for more than 25 years and is heading a team of 20+ experts within risk analysis and uncertainty modelling.  Søren is highly experienced in setting up and executing risk management strategies for large projects, programs and portfolios. Søren has a master’s degree in Structural Engineering and holds a Ph.D. in load uncertainty modelling applying various simulation techniques inst ructural system behaviour. 

This recording is part of the webinar: Master Project & Business Decisions with Monte Carlo Simulation