Addressing Hybrid Threats through Enhanced Risk Analysis Methodologies

Author: Maryna Zharikova

In an era marked by accelerating climate change and technological disruptions, the ongoing hybrid attacks on Ukraine’s

critical infrastructure reveal significant shortcomings in traditional risk analysis methodologies. Hybrid threats, characterized by their multidimensional nature—integrating cyberattacks, physical sabotage, and disinformation—exploit vulnerabilities across societal, digital, and physical domains. This presentation employs Ukraine’s experience as a case study to examine the limitations of existing risk assessment frameworks.

By analyzing specific incidents, such as attacks on energy and communication systems, we identify critical gaps, including the lack of real-time data integration, inadequate consideration of cascading effects, and insufficient predictive capabilities.

The need for a multi-risk-based approach is emphasized, recognizing that contemporary threats impact multiple sectors simultaneously and demand preparedness at all levels—global, regional, national, and local.

To address these challenges, we propose pathways for improving risk analysis methodologies, including leveraging advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and dynamic modeling techniques. By adopting a systems-based perspective that acknowledges interdependencies among critical infrastructures, we can develop more robust and adaptable frameworks.

This presentation aims to show the approaches to the development of comprehensive risk analysis methodologies that

enhance resilience and security across diverse geopolitical contexts. By learning from Ukraine’s resilience and innovative

responses, we can better prepare for and mitigate the impacts of hybrid threats, fostering a more secure future for critical infrastructure globally.9th SRA-E Nordic annual conference Nordics, Baltics and the Arctic in Transition Uncertainties and Opportunities for Risk Analysis.

Bio:
Maryna Zharikova is a researcher specializing in risk analysis and hybrid threat modeling. She is a Professor in the Software Tools and Technologies Department at Kherson National Technical University, Ukraine, where she teaches and conducts research online. Her research focuses on developing frameworks for hybrid risk analysis and addressing dynamic, multidimensional threats to critical infrastructure, and she has led numerous EU-funded projects and published extensively on reliability modeling and human factors in risk management.